USD/CAD 1.0080
GBP/CAD 1.5273
EUR/USD 1.3550
GBP/USD 1.5145
CAD/EUR 1.3656
JPY/CAD 0.011120
Oil opened at $82.20, currently $81.88
Gold opened at $1127.50, currently $1124.10

CRB closed at 275.68, -0.62

Yesterday:

• US consumer price inflation little changed on lower energy costs, as it affirms the federal reserve’s stance that inflation will remain low as the economy recovers, rates to also remain low.
• US jobless claims dip slightly as the number of workers filing new application for unemployment benefits fell less than expected last week.
• Canadian government signals it probably won’t block the loonies’ move toward parity, playing down concerns.

Overnight:

• China to send envoy to Washington to try to cool trade disputes as its currency valuation comes under fire, saying threats from US legislators could hinder progress.
• German says it does not rule out IMF assistance for Greece, a government spokesman said, adding it is confident in Greece’s consolidation efforts will be successful.
• French President Sarkozy opposes IMF loan to Greece, adding to more tension between union members i.e. Germany, with regards to Greece sovereign debt crisis.

Today:

• Canadian CPI figures reported higher than expectation, adding support for a bullish push for the loonie.  It is notable that BC was the only Canadian province to raise prices due to the Olympic games.
• Canadian retail sales rose above expectations.  The ex-autos component had the biggest gain since November 2007 and was the sixth straight gain.
• Economists say that the US Fed may increase the discount rate charged on direct loans to banks before the next meeting of the FOMC on April 28.

Observations:

The Loonie slipped lower overnight on light data overseas and traded between 1.0150-1.0190 for most of the night. At 7:00am Stats. Can. released higher than expected inflation data which promptly shot the Loonie stronger to 1.01 on speculation that the Bank of Canada will be prompted to hike interest rates sooner and faster than expected. The US dollar was pushed even lower at 8:30 again this morning with better than expected Retail Sales from the US. This positive sentiment has helped commodities to gain back some of the lost ground overnight and gave equity markets a bit of a boost going into the weekend. It’s unlikely now that we’ll see that same volatility we did this morning and stick in our recent range of 1.0070-1.0130.

Thought of the Day

“You can't undo the past... but you can certainly not repeat it.”  --  Bruce Willis

USD/CAD 1.0101
GBP/CAD 1.5441
EUR/USD 1.3675
GBP/USD 1.5297
CAD/EUR 1.3811
JPY/CAD 0.011206
Oil opened at $82.93, currently $82.59
Gold opened at $1124.20, currently $1126.20

CRB closed at 276.30, +2.76

Yesterday:

• US producer prices fell more steeply than expected in February, posting the biggest drop in 7 months as energy costs tumbled. Futures gain on data.
• Canadian wholesale sales rose at the quickest pace in 3 years in January, as automobiles took the lead in every major category tracked by Stats Canada.
• US weekly Crude oil inventories reported slightly above expectations; FED Chairman Bernanke testified at 2:00pm.

Overnight:

• The US kept up pressure on China to let the yuna climb as Beijing disclosed it was sounding out exporters on whether they could cope with a stronger exchange rate. China conducting stress tests to gauge the impact on industry in the event of appreciation.
• Greece raised concerns, warning it cannot achieve promised deficit cuts if its borrowing cost remain so high and may have to call in the IMF. Euro declines on this fear.
• Portugal said to plan a sales of bonds in dollars since November as part of a plan to issue 25 % more debt this year to fund its biggest deficit.

Today:

• US consumer price inflation little changed on lower energy costs, as it affirms the federal reserve’s stance that inflation will remain low as the economy recovers, rates to also remain low.
• US jobless claims dip slightly as the number of workers filing new application for unemployment benefits fell less than expected last week.
• The Canadian government signals it probably won’t block the loonie’s move toward parity, playing down concerns.

Observations:

The Chinese government warned that inflation will be a key challenge in the coming months as the World Bank raised China’s growth forecast to 9.5% from the previous 9%. The Greek bail-out plan appears to be up in the air as Germany issues statements that contradict Euro Zone previous statements, both the Euro currency and Greek stocks declined on the news.

Canadian government is not concerned with the strength of the Loonie and believes that it is at a level that will continue to keep Canada’s economy competitive. Canadian inflation numbers will be released tomorrow morning, some analysts believe the outcome will have little effect on the Loonie’s drive to parity.

Thought of the Day

“Genius ain't anything more than elegant common sense.”  --  Josh Billings

USD/CAD 1.0109
GBP/CAD 1.5505
EUR/USD 1.3757
GBP/USD 1.5348
CAD/EUR 1.3899
JPY/CAD 0.011169
Oil opened at $81.26, currently $82.43
Gold opened at $1122.50, currently $1125.60

CRB closed at 273.54, +2.75

Yesterday:

• Stocks were higher as investors overlooked concerns of possible further tightening of monetary policy in China and welcomed further progress on the Greek debt crisis and following of Fed rate decision which reported unchanged at 0.25% and to expect low rates for an extended period.
• US February Housing starts and building permits reports out this morning came out meeting expectations. A slight decrease was expected due to a harsher winter and lower demand.
• CAN Finance minister Jim Flaherty changes his tune by saying the loonie near parity keeps the Canadian economy competitive.

Overnight:

• Bank of Japan doubles its lending program aimed at depleting deflation; holds its overnight lending rate at 0.1%. Asian stocks and commodity prices rise on the Fed’s decision.
• World Bank raised its 2010 growth and inflation forecasts for China and recommended a tighter monetary policy and to revalue the Yuan to restrain inflation and asset bubbles.
• Jobless claims in UK drop at fastest pace since ’97 as economy recovers, implying recovery is strengthening in time for elections within weeks.

Today:

• US producer prices fell more steeply than expected in February, posting the biggest drop in 7 months as energy costs tumbled. Futures gain on data.
• Canadian wholesale sales rose at the quickest pace in 3 years in January, as automobiles took the lead in every major category tracked by Stats Canada.
• US weekly Crude oil inventories report out at 10:30a; FED Chairman Bernanke testifies at 2:00pm.

Observations:

Markets worldwide had similar positive reactions to the U.S. Fed announcement that it will hold interest rates yesterday afternoon. UK jobless claims fell at the fastest pace since 1997 suggesting the economy is on the road to recovery. Greece debt is still a looming concern and some economist believe there are more Euro Zone economic concerns that could surface in coming months. Canadian Finance Minister Flaherty has changed his tune towards the strong CAD and doesn’t feel the need for the policy makers to step in at this time.

Thought of the Day

“Silence is a source of great strength.”  --  Lao Tzu

USD/CAD 1.0164
GBP/CAD 1.5372
EUR/USD 1.3723
GBP/USD 1.5128
CAD/EUR 1.3947
JPY/CAD 0.01120
Oil opened at $79.82, currently $80.87
Gold opened at $1105.40, currently $1123.00

CRB closed at 270.79, -2.52

Yesterday:

• US stock-index futures fall on anticipation reports to show production in the US was unchanged in February. Investors focus on New York manufacturing and US industry output data not far from expectations.
• Weighing on the market was caution ahead of Tuesday’s start of a monetary policy meeting of the Federal Reserve, which is expected to hold interest rates near zero.
• Crude oil declined for a 2^nd day as the dollar gained, stifling demand for most commodities as a currency hedge.  Preparations being made for the OPEC meeting this week in Vienna.

Overnight:

• EU ministers discussed standby plans for Greece. Reports of drawing up plans to provide Greece with financial help if it becomes the 1^st state in 11 years of monetary union to seek such assistance.
• Stock index futures rose ahead of Federal Reserve meeting where policy makers are expected to reiterate its stance to leave rates low for a low time.
• China shunned mounting US demands for a stronger yuan, saying its currency isn’t the culprit of its big trade surplus; vowing t keep it stable to shore up exports.

Today:

• Euro stock were higher as investors overlooked concerns of possible further tightening of monetary policy in China and welcomed further progress on the Greek debt crisis and ahead of Fed rate decision later at 2:15p.
• February Housing starts and building permits reports out this morning came out meeting expectations. Also beating a slight decrease expectation due to harsher winter and lower demand.
• CAN Finance minister Jim Flaherty changes his tune by saying the loonie near parity keep the Canadian economy competitive.

Observations:

Yesterday Euro zone finance ministers laid the “life-line groundwork” for a Greek bailout if necessary although policy makers are hopeful that Greece’s budget cuts will make a bailout unnecessary. Canadian Existing Home Sales fell slightly for the second month in a row and Finance Minister Flaherty thinks Canada is on the right track to avoiding a housing bubble. This afternoon the U.S Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates near zero and renew its pledge to keep borrowing costs low due to high unemployment and low inflation.

Thought of the Day

“Freedom lies in being bold.”  --  Robert Frost

USD/CAD 1.0185
GBP/CAD 1.5330
EUR/USD 1.3715
GBP/USD 1.5052
CAD/EUR 1.3968
JPY/CAD 0.011224
Oil opened at $81.24, currently $80.72
Gold opened at $1101.70, currently $1107.30

CRB closed at 273.31, -0.08

Friday:

• Canada gained more jobs than expected in February.  While the jobless rate fell slightly to 8.2% from 8.3%.  Harper pledged to maintain stimulus measures until recovery firmly rooted.
• US retail sales report better than expected results (despite storms which kept consumers in), up 0.3% versus expectations of -0.1%.  US consumer sentiment report out reported slightly negative.
• Financial stocks in focus after increases in the session prior as mixed US Senate negotiations to overhaul financial regulations collapsed, jeopardizing a top Obama administration priority.

Overnight:

• Possible monetary tightening concerns arise in China regarding its demand as they try to balance their growth trajectory with a battle against inflation.  S&P 500 Futures fell 3.1 points.
• The Euro slipped on concerns that a potential financial aid package for Greece, being discussed by finance ministers in Brussels, wouldn’t be enough to solve the region’s sovereign debt issue.
• China’s Premier Wen Jiabao’s rejections of an appreciating Yuan seen to cause further damage to strained US/China relations where lawmakers and analysts says his position is stumping the global recovery.

Today:

• US stock-index futures fall before a report today may show production in the US was unchanged in February. Investors focus on New York manufacturing and US industry output data today.
• Weighing on the market is caution ahead of Tuesday’s start of a monetary policy meeting of the Federal Reserve, which is expected to hold interest rates near zero.
• Crude oil declined for a 2^nd day as the dollar gained, stifling demand for most commodities as a currency hedge.  Preparations being made for the OPEC meeting this week in Vienna.

Observations:

Sixteen European Union finance ministers are scheduled to meet this morning to discuss aid to Greece, the underlying hope is that the “belt tightening steps” Greece is taking on its own will make a full fledged bailout unnecessary. In the U.S. money market interest rates are at five month highs, a sign traders are preparing for tighter monetary policy as stimulus measures end. Canada is glowing with signs of economic recovery but many consumer companies aren’t convinced the good times are here to stay. In turn they are opting not to payout the dividends they could potentially afford until they are sure the growth is sustainable. Globally, most of the markets are down slightly including gold and oil, with the exception of the DOW Jones and the Nikkei both showing some positive numbers.

Thought of the Day

“History is the version of past events that people have decided to agree upon.”  --  Napoleon Bonaparte