USD/CAD 1.0320
GBP/CAD 1.6123
EUR/USD 1.3080
GBP/USD 1.5623
CAD/EUR 1.3496
JPY/CAD 84.21
 
Oil opened at $76.99, currently $77.14
Gold opened at $1160.40, currently $1164.40
CRB closed at 266.16, +1.70

Morning Observations:

Stocks continue their slow monotonous climb overnight after investors shrugged off lower than expected durable goods orders in the States yesterday. New Zealand raised their cash rate by ¼% overnight for the second time in a number of weeks. This lifts their benchmark rate 0.5% over their record lows of 2.5%. Although, like Canada and Australia, it will be difficult to raise interest rates much higher if the G4 economies continue to struggle.

The USD/CAD exchange rate fluctuated between 1.0303-1.0392 overnight and was helped lower by notable US dollar selling versus the major crosses. The euro is making fresh multi-month highs; it is currently trading next to the 1.3092 high, and should target 1.3125 before losing some steam. Today, unemployment claims from the States will dominate the headlines. It is no secret that the States has struggled manufacturing jobs, a poor reading wouldn’t surprise too many people and should keep us in our recent ranges. Expected range in USD/CAD today: 1.0300-1.0395. 

Thought of the Day

“A cynic is a man who knows the price of everything but the value of nothing.”  --  Oscar Wilde

USD/CAD 1.0315
GBP/CAD 1.6056
EUR/USD 1.2994
GBP/USD 1.5574
CAD/EUR 1.3397
JPY/CAD 85.12
 
Oil opened at $77.50, currently $77.38
Gold opened at $1158.00, currently $1162.40
CRB closed at 264.46, -2.20

Morning Observations:

Yesterday morning markets got off to a great start; however were unable to add to the enthusiasm despite multiple attempts throughout the day. The Loonie ranged between 1.0256 (posted early morning) and in one of a couple sell offs mid-afternoon reached 1.0392.

Notable moves in the currency landscape this morning include a stronger Pound Sterling. This is being chalked up to firmer economic readings from the U.K. recently and a bid by a Canadian consortium to buy Tomkins Plc for 2.9 billion pounds (GBP/CAD high of 1.6176). Elsewhere the Aussie dollar was knocked lower, despite plenty of risk appetite, due to a low inflation reading out of that region last night (AUD/USD is 1% off its two-month high). The Royal Bank of Australia has already indicated that the will ease off their rate hiking cycle and this only make the decision easier.

Equity sentiment is mixed this morning and we will await US Core Durable Goods Orders data at 8:30. Crude oil looks like it has found a short-term bottom around $77/brl and with inventories expected low today at 10:30 we very likely could see another rally. Risk looks like it will play today, marching the Loonie higher, range in USD/CAD 1.0240-1.0340

Thought of the Day

“Behind every successful man lurks a truly amazed ex-mother-in-law.”  --  John Chrusciel

USD/CAD 1.0260
GBP/CAD 1.5944
EUR/USD 1.3027
GBP/USD 1.5538
CAD/EUR 1.3376
JPY/CAD 85.10
 
Oil opened at $78.98, currently $74.46
Gold opened at $1183.10, currently $1184.20
CRB closed at 266.66, +0.04

Morning Observations:

The US dollar is broadly weaker again this morning as markets overnight continued their upbeat sentiment from yesterday. The Dollar is breaking through some significant support levels this morning against many of its major trading partners. Against our Loonie 1.0280 represents the strongest point in the latter half of July. Versus the Euro; 1.3030 marked the strongest euro in over two and a half months, although there are rumors of official selling interest (Swiss National Bank) around these levels. Finally and most notably; cable is touching 5 month highs and getting ever so close to moving above the 200 DMA set currently at 1.5556.

Datawise today there is nothing from Canada and from the US Consumer Confidence and a Manufacturing Index number, are both out at 10:00am. Markets look like they will hold their bid tone through the open however poor data readings could turn things around. Expecting USD/CAD to sell down to 1.0240 range before mid-morning and some profit taking to later in the afternoon to take us back up to 1.0300. Range today in USD/CAD: 1.0240-1.0320

Thought of the Day

“If you break 100, watch your golf. If you break 80, watch your business.”  --  Joey Adams

USD/CAD 1.0358
GBP/CAD 1.6050
EUR/USD 1.2927
GBP/USD 1.5500
CAD/EUR 1.3387
JPY/CAD 83.86
 
Oil opened at $78.98, currently $78.38
Gold opened at $1187.80, currently $1187.10
CRB closed at 266.62, -0.24

Morning Observations:

We are officially into the thick of summer (at least that’s what the red pigment inflaming my face is telling me). Apparently I’m not the only one enjoying some time off either as markets are getting off to a slow start, the USD/CAD exchange rate fluctuating only half a cent since Friday afternoon. Global equity markets have had little to react to and all are little changed from their respective open. New home sales out of the States is the only scheduled data piece out today and forecasts are moderately higher than the month previous (317k versus 300k). Commodity markets are generally lower as well this morning, crude is off about $1.00 from its highs of $79.57.

In Currencyland the notable mover in the past 24 hours has been the Euro as it reacted to the stress test results released Friday. Seven of ninety-one banks failed the test (the market was looking for 9 or 10) resulting in a stronger Euro this morning. Going forward today don’t expect too much volatility and FX valuations will likely be driven by risk appetite. The EUR/USD pair is in striking distance of its 1.3029 high that it reached July 20^th this could very well drive our Loonie to new highs today if markets don’t sell off today. Initial support will come in around 1.0320 and 1.0275, expected range in USD/CAD: 1.0320-1.0390.

Thought of the Day

“Man approaches the unattainable truth through a succession of errors.”  --  Aldous Huxley

USD/CAD 1.0382
GBP/CAD 1.6004
EUR/USD 1.2898
GBP/USD 1.5417
CAD/EUR 1.3387
JPY/CAD 84.23
 
Oil opened at $78.16, currently $78.73
Gold opened at $1195.60, currently $1201.50
CRB closed at 266.86    261.53       5.33

Morning Observations:

Canadian retail sales and the release of the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy report underpinned the Loonie yesterday, as an increase in spending on discretionary goods and a slightly more hawkish tone in the monetary report were seen as positive for our currency. Overnight, more positive news from Europe and better than expected U.K. GDP pushed already surging equity markets higher. Commodities are also benefitting from an upbeat market sentiment, and with weather concerns in the Gulf of Mexico crude oil touched $79.50 this a.m.

Today is all about stress tests, as 90 bankers have been running on a treadmill now for weeks, and this afternoon we will see how fast their hearts are actually beating. The stability of Europe’s financial industry will ultimately determine the regions ability to pull out of their sovereign debt problems and return to financial stability.

Turning to today our inflation reading indicated a contraction in prices by 0.1% month over month. The Loonie dropped along with the probability of a rate hike in September. Today the currencies will take their directions from market sentiment, and who isn’t optimistic on a rainy Friday. Expected range today in USD/CAD: 1.0320-1.0420 

Thought of the Day

“We don't see things as they are, we see them as we are.”  --  Anais Nin