USD/CAD 1.0288
GBP/CAD 1.5449
EUR/USD 1.3644
GBP/USD 1.5015
CAD/EUR 1.4034
JPY/CAD 0.011366
Oil opened at $82.10, currently $81.43
Gold opened at $1108.40, currently $1102.30

CRB closed at 274.62,  -0.17

Yesterday:

• Stock futures barely moved after data showed Chinese exports and imports grew faster than expected and corporate deals between biomed firms.
• Reports emerge out of Alberta about changing rates on oil and gas royalties as it attempts to reverse a decline in production of natural gas.
• US monthly Wholesale Inventories remained steady and US weekly Crude Oil inventories (number of barrels of crude held by commercial firms) reports show slight decline.

Overnight:

• China’s inflation reached 2.7% a 16-month high n February, providing fresh arguments for policy tightening sooner rather than later.
• Swiss National Bank keeps benchmark rate near zero as economy strengthens and repeated a statement to sell the franc if need be to keep it from rising beyond favour.
• Stock futures were down on Chinese CPI, ahead of jobless data out Thursday.  Greek workers (2.5mln union workers) are on strike due to austerity measures.

Today:

• US jobless claims down less than expected by 6,000 last week, seen positive though economist expected a decrease of 9,000.
• US deficit international trade of goods and services decreased 6.6% to $37.9 bln, lower than the Wall Street expectations for a $41 bln shortfall.
• Canada’s new home prices up 0.4% in 7^th straight rise.  Canada surplus on the upside beat of $799 mln, as Jan. exports widened +0.5% ; imports -1.7%.

Observations:

The Canadian dollar reached its highest level in five months yesterday, as stocks gained and crude oil rose to a two month high. A big factor in the short term direction of the dollar will be the results of tomorrows the unemployment rate, which comes out at 7:00 am. The loonie will most likely continue to remain relatively strong and may make a push towards par as the Bank of Canada moves toward increasing interest rates this summer.

Greece’s unions shut down hospitals, airports and schools today in the country’s second general strike this year to protest the country's latest round of budget cuts to curb the European Union’s biggest deficit. The citizens of the country are not happy with the tax increases and service cuts, this is another factor that could have a negative influence on the euro.  

Thought of the Day

“The roots of education are bitter, but the fruit is sweet.”  --  Aristotle

USD/CAD 1.0270
GBP/CAD 1.5335
EUR/USD 1.3604
GBP/USD 1.4935
CAD/EUR 1.3967
JPY/CAD 0.011355
Oil opened at $81.50, currently $81.54
Gold opened at $1122.50, currently $1122.80

CRB closed at 274.79, -1.92

Friday:

• Warnings about deteriorating credit quality in Europe by rating agencies prompt investors to seek refuge in the safety of the USD.
• Gold is down after China’s chief foreign-exchange regulator Yi Gang indicated that China’s future gold purchases.
• Greek Prime Minister Papandreou met with US President Obama who expressed support for measures being implemented to deal with the financial crisis.

Overnight:

• China’s exports and imports grew faster than expected in February, continuing the momentum behind the behind the 3^rd largest economy. Strengthens case for rise of the Yuan.
• Ratings-agency rumblings on the UK and Portugal pressured the pound and euro.  Currency investors not shaken saying the currencies will bounce back, until the agencies actually pulls the trigger and cuts its ratings.
• German exports unexpectedly dropped in January, euro extended decline after the report.  Worries of a slow export led recovery arise.

Today:

• Stock futures barely moves this morning after data showed Chinese exports and imports grew faster than expected and corporate deals between biomed firms.
• Reports emerge out of Alberta, changing rates on oil and gas royalties as early as tomorrow as it attempts to reverse a decline in production of natural gas.
• US monthly Wholesale Inventories (goods held by wholesalers) and US weekly Crude Oil inventories (number of barrels of crude held by commercial firms) reports releases at 10 and 10:30a.

Observations:

Canada’s dollar rose for an eighth consecutive day, its longest streak in five and a half years, as gains in stocks and persistent strength in commodity prices drove investors into currencies tied to economic growth. This is the third time in the last 6 months we have seen the Canadian dollar reach these levels and make a strong push toward parity only to see it retrace again.

Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou said U.S President Barack Obama reacted positively to European ideas about cracking down on currency speculation. He also said the issue would be discussed at the next meeting of the Group of 20 summit of leading and emerging economies in June (across the street from us). China, the world's biggest holder of foreign exchange reserves, renewed its commitment to the U.S. Treasury market on Tuesday, but said it will be wary of adding to its gold holdings. It will be interesting to see how this effects both the U.S dollar and the price of gold in the future.

Thought of the Day

“Moderation is a virtue only in those who are thought to have an alternative.”  --  Henry A. Kissinger

USD/CAD 1.0295
GBP/CAD 1.5396
EUR/USD 1.3546
GBP/USD 1.4964
CAD/EUR 1.3937
JPY/CAD 0.011455
Oil opened at $81.87, currently $80.77
Gold opened at $1124.00, currently $1112.80

CRB closed at 276.71, -0.22

Friday:

• Canadian housing starts up more than forecast. Continue show of a strong upside beat. Ontario was the hottest area with Urban starts. Atlantic area followed while starts in Quebec fell 14%.
• EU’s Trichet talks public finances and the global economy in Basel today and EUR’USD has managed to recover back up to a 10-day moving avg. support.
• The impact of last week’s surprising US jobs data is still being felt this week, after upbeat figures sharpened risk appetite and pushed safe haven currencies down versus commodity driven currencies i.e. the Loonie.

Overnight:

• China vows to continue to support and buy US treasuries amid speculation that they were diversifying away from the USD, including gold and the EUR. Stated wariness of gold last night.
• Sovereign default within the Euro zone is possible, Fitch ratings said.  Portugal and Spain may be downgraded amid continuing debt risks.
• Greek PM Papandreou on tap to press US President Obama to assist Europe combat unprecedented speculators who he blames would possibly cause a new financial crisis.

Today:

• Warnings about deteriorating credit quality in Europe by rating agencies prompt investors to seek refuge in the safety of the USD.
• April crude is off to a slow start, seen pulling back overnight threatening recent bullish run.
• Gold is down after China’s chief foreign-exchange regulator Yi Gang indicated that China’s future gold purchases.

Observations:

The Canadian Dollar reached a seven week high, backed by increasing oil prices. Morgan Stanley is reporting that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates in June from 0.25% to 0.50% and possibly by end of the year increase them to 1.50%. If this does happen, we can expect the Canadian Dollar to push further towards par.

Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou will be meeting with Barack Obama today to push him to help Europe battle against spectators, who he says have created the global financial crisis. It will be interesting to see if Obama will back the Prime Minister and what this will do to the Euro and U.S dollar. On March 9^th, 2009 the Dow Jones was trading 6,547 points, in the mists of the U.S mortgage crisis. One year later investor confidence has pushed the Dow to 10,552, a good sign, but far off from its October 2007 high of 14,164.

Thought of the Day

“To improve is to change; to be perfect is to change often.”  --  Winston Churchill

USD/CAD 1.0266
GBP/CAD 1.5550
EUR/USD 1.3660
GBP/USD 1.5146
CAD/EUR 1.4028
JPY/CAD 0.011372
Oil opened at $81.50, currently $81.77
Gold opened at $1135.00, currently $1135.10

CRB closed at 276.93, +2.13

Friday:

• US ending home sales decreased last month by 7.6% vs. expectations of a .8% growth.
• Two regional Federal Reserve bank presidents said they think the central bank should keep rates low until the recovery picks up.
• The US economy shed few jobs than expected in February and the unemployment rate was steady at 9.7% despite stormy weather on the East coast  Payrolls only fell by 36,000 versus expectations of a loss of 75k.

Overnight:

• Stock seen mixed; Treasury’s lower; Brent Crude higher; Gold higher. As confidence that the Greek debt crisis will now be resolved helping to boost the euro in Europe.
• Sentiment in financial markets was much improved, aided by last Friday’s stronger-than-expected U.S. payrolls data, as well as news that Japan’s current account surplus was bigger than anticipated.
• Thousands (up to 270,000) of UK public-sector workers begin 48-hour strike in protest over cuts to redundancy terms.

Today:

• Canadian housing starts up more than forecast. Continue show of a strong upside beat. Ontario was the hottest area with Urban starts. Atlantic area followed while starts in Quebec fell 14%.
• EU’s Trichet talks public finances and the global economy in Basel today and EUR’USD has managed to recover back up to a 10-day moving avg. support.
• The impact of last week’s surprising US jobs data is still being felt this week, after upbeat figures sharpened risk appetite and pushed safe haven currencies down versus commodity driven currencies i.e. the Loonie.

Observations:

The Loonie has surpassed the Australian dollar among commodity currencies. Along with the Aussie and Loonie, other commodity based currencies, such as the New Zealand and South African Rand have also gain in strength. This recent surge in the Canadian Dollar has a lot to do with Canada’s financial system being named the soundest in the world for the second straight year, leading the way to be the first of the seven nations to erase its budget gap after the financial crisis.  The strength in our banking system has paid off for the country’s top banking CEO’s as their salaries have increased by an average of 10% for 2009, a sure sign that Canada is on the path to economic recovery.

The Yen and the U.S dollar have fallen against major currencies on the speculation that the wealthier European nation are willing to bailout Greece financially, if their budget cuts don’t help the country recover. French President Nicolas Sarkozy made some of the strongest comments by a European Union leader to signal the bloc would help Greece, in an effort to help strengthen the Euro.

Thought of the Day

“It's the movies that have really been running things in America ever since they were invented. They show you what to do, how to do it, when to do it, how to feel about it, and how to look how you feel about it.”  --  Andy Warhol

USD/CAD 1.0266
GBP/CAD 1.5427
EUR/USD 1.3565
GBP/USD 1.5023
CAD/EUR 1.3922
JPY/CAD 0.011393
Oil opened at $80.21, currently $81.58
Gold opened at $1133.10, currently $1135.60

CRB closed at 274.80, -2.91

Yesterday:

• Canadian January building permits unexpectedly fall on non-residential projects.  Residential projects rose with the help of low-mortgage rates.
• In an encouraging sign for the U.S. jobs market, the number of workers filing new claims for jobless benefits declined last week by more than expected while continuing claims fell to their lowest level in more than a year.
• Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty delivered the Canadian government’s 2010 Budget and said the record budget deficit would be cut in half when fiscal stimulus ends next year.

Overnight:

• Oil climbed towards $81/brl as China said they will maintain their economic stimulus measures boosting hopes strong growth will help drain excess oil supplies.
• Singapore raised alert levels to its Navy of possible attacks on the Strait of Malacca- which is a key shipping lane for 40% of world trade including an average of 15 mln barrels of crude oil daily.
• German rules out immediate aid for Greece before talks to be held today with Prime Minister Papandreou and the German Gov’t.

Today:

• US ending home sales decreased last month by 7.6% vs. expectations of a .8% growth.
• Two regional Federal Reserve bank presidents said they think the central bank should keep rates low until the recovery picks up.        

Observations:

With non-farm payrolls coming in at a less the expected loss of 36k (vs. expectations of 56k in losses) positions nationwide.  The sudden burst of optimism in the markets, coupled with positive December and January revisions pushed stocks and commodities higher to start the day.  The favorable jobs data that saw the  unemployment hold steady at 9.7% fueled markets already bolstered by good news from the EU surrounding the who Greece situation.  As Greece, gains further positive momentum from its own measures and the backing of other EU nations risk acceptance looks to be back in play.  Lastly yesterdays newly released federal budget in Canada, showed that Canada plans to be one of the fist of the G-7 to climb back into the black.  Moving to the currencies: the Loonie is once again riding the risk wave and the currency continues to approach 365 day lows.  Watch for the USD/CAD pair to mirror equities into the end of the trading day, but to hit  major resistance at the 365 day low. 

Thought of the Day

“A man cannot be comfortable without his own approval.”  --  Mark Twain